As 2020 approaches the finish line, it’s a good time to evaluate what lies ahead.
If this year taught us only one thing, it’s that we can’t predict everything.
But even without a clear path, we can still head in the right direction.
Right now, it’s looking like these four things will happen in 2021.
Dollar Devaluation and a Stock Market Rally
It’s time to get out of cash and into stocks.
With a high likelihood of fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep rates low, the outlook is grim for the U.S. dollar.
A COVID-19 vaccine will make the outlook even grimmer.
International investors will move from safe-haven U.S. assets to international markets, which will put downward pressure on the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Index will fall into the low $80s, a 10% decline from its current level.
The U.S. Dollar Is Headed for a 10% Drop
(Source: Bloomberg.)
Investors shouldn’t panic, though — a weaker dollar is typically bullish for stocks.
In 2017, the S&P 500 Index gained 22% while the U.S. dollar fell 10%.
A similar move this year would put the S&P 500 at 4,300 by the end of 2021.
Biotech Stocks Will Lead the Way
2020 has been a breakout year for drug development. I expect this to continue into 2021.
Multiple COVID-19 vaccines are on the horizon, which will keep biotech stocks in the spotlight.
Moderna Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA) and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) have demonstrated that mRNA can be effectively used to create vaccines, strengthening the thesis that mRNA can disrupt the drug industry.
If that wasn’t enough, biotech stocks have performed well during Democratic presidencies.
After Barack Obama’s reelection in 2012, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index skyrocketed 60% the next year.
This was nearly double the gain of the Nasdaq Composite Index.
2012: Biotech Stocks (Black) vs. the Nasdaq (Red)
(Source: Bloomberg.)
Chinese Stocks Gain More Than U.S. Stocks
With a Biden presidency, U.S. relations with China are likely to improve, and there should be less scrutiny for Chinese companies.
During his term, President Donald Trump has implemented strict trade policies and made numerous threats of delisting Chinese stocks from U.S. exchanges.
As a result, Chinese stocks have fallen out of favor and have performed seven times worse than U.S. stocks since 2017.
U.S. Stocks (Red) vs. Chinese Stocks (Blue)
(Source: Bloomberg.)
The last five years don’t tell the whole story though. Chinese stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks by 200% since 1990.
In 2021, the climate is favorable for Chinese stocks to regain some ground on U.S. stocks.
Small-Cap Stocks Outperform Large Caps
During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, investors flocked to Big Tech stocks and index funds, which were perceived to be safer.
This led to a large divergence between large- and small-cap stock performance.
As a result, the ratio between U.S. small caps and large caps collapsed below its 10-year range. But small caps are recovering rapidly.
Since bottoming in March, small-cap stocks have returned 87% versus large caps’ 52% return.
I expect this momentum to continue, as the small-cap-to-large-cap ratio is still 10% below its 10-year average.
The Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Ratio Is Below Its 10-Year Average
(Source: Bloomberg.)
Smaller stocks have the most to gain from a vaccine and still have plenty of room to run.
Get Ready to Make Huge Gains in 2021
The best investors recognize that it is better to make money than be right.
To make money, we have to continually adapt to the hand the market gives us.
Let’s keep an open mind and make huge gains in 2021.
Regards,
Analyst, Automatic Fortunes